A new American Research Group survey shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama, 50%-46%, among likely voters in North Carolina.

Key stats:

a. Romney swamps Obama among independents, 55%-40%, and even siphons off 19% of Democrats.

b. Women back Obama by 9%, but Romney holds a massive 19% lead with men.

c. Sampling is pretty consistent with 2008 turnout numbers, which bodes well for Romney, considering the polls samples 10% more Democrats than Republicans.

In 2008, Dems had an 11% turnout advantage on Republicans, but the state was close because McCain won by 21% among independents.

Today's poll now gives Romney a 0.7% edge in the RCP average of North Carolina polls. Safe to say that six months ago, he didn't envision things quite this close in the Tarheel state.

gop12.thehill.com/

Edited by ævory (10/01/12 03:04 PM)