A new American Research Group survey shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama, 50%-46%, among likely voters in North Carolina.
a. Romney swamps Obama among independents, 55%-40%, and even siphons off 19% of Democrats.
b. Women back Obama by 9%, but Romney holds a massive 19% lead with men.
c. Sampling is pretty consistent with 2008 turnout numbers, which bodes well for Romney, considering the polls samples 10% more Democrats than Republicans.
In 2008, Dems had an 11% turnout advantage on Republicans, but the state was close because McCain won by 21% among independents.
Today's poll now gives Romney a 0.7% edge in the RCP average of North Carolina polls. Safe to say that six months ago, he didn't envision things quite this close in the Tarheel state.
Edited by ævory (10/01/12 03:04 PM)